Catholics, Protestants and the British general election

Robert Worcester and Roger Mortimore:

Tony Blair’s majority might have disappeared at the election if Catholic voters had not remained loyal to Labour. The results of a MORI survey for The Tablet reveals the role of religion at the ballot box

Britain might be one of the most secular nations in Europe, but the religious vote still plays a powerful part in the life of the country. According to MORI surveys conducted for The Tablet the votes of Catholics gave Tony Blair the edge in Labour’s narrow victory.

Labour won the election by just three percentage points, taking a 36 per cent share of the vote, while the Conservatives took 33 per cent and the Liberal Democrats 23 per cent. Had no Catholics voted, the Tories would have secured a knife-edge 35 per cent to 34 per cent lead in the popular vote, depriving Tony Blair of a popular mandate. The research throughout the election campaign showed that Labour support among Catholics, at 53 per cent, stands if anything higher than in 1997 when Tony Blair was first elected. MORI surveys before that election put Labour support among Catholics at just over 50 per cent. Catholic loyalty to Tony Blair is in distinct contrast to the attitudes of the rest of the public, helping to give a vital cushion of seats.

As a group, Catholics are among Labour’s strongest supporters. Had only Catholics voted, the third Labour landslide would have been of monumental proportions, with Labour gaining more than half of all the votes cast and a majority measured in hundreds of seats rather than tens, while the Liberal Democrats would have almost overtaken the Tories in votes, if not in seats. Without these Catholic votes questions about the democratic legitimacy of Tony Blair’s hold on power would be very much stronger and his hold on the premiership tenuous.

Here is how Protestants voted:

The Protestant vote, however, was very different: Michael Howard’s party had a 10-point lead over Labour among non-Catholic Christians, and if only they had voted he would have been choosing his Cabinet on the Friday morning following the election.

Tories are particularly strong in the Church of England which, while not quite living up to its old stereotype as “the Conservative Party at prayer”, voted 44 per cent Conservative to 31 per cent Labour and 20 per cent Liberal Democrat – a 13-point lead.

I think this may be bad news for the British Labour Party in the long term since it is unlikely that they will be able to come up with policies that appeal to both Catholics and Muslims which may mean that Catholics will be more likely to vote for the Conservatives in the future.