Wednesday, July 27, 2005

Would it really cost $41 billion a year to remove illegal immigrants?

Steve Sailer:

This is a crucial point because the study claims that apprehension accounts for 73.61% of the total cost of illegal removal. Using a more realistic 250 illegals per agent, per year, reduces the apprehension cost from $17,603 (the number in the "study") down to less than $1000 per deportation (actually $702.8). Of course, this results in an 70.67% reduction in the total cost of illegal expulsion.

If that weren't bad enough... The study also assumes that only 20% of the illegals would remove themselves faced with real law enforcement. Experience in the U.S. and other countries shows that at least 2/3 would get out rather than be arrested and deported. Providing incentives ("leave on your own with no penalty versus a lifetime ban if we have to do it" would be one approach) could raise this fraction materially.

Using a more realistic 66.7% voluntary exit rate yields another 58.34% cost reduction. Combining these two "minor adjustments" reduces that likely cost by 87.78%. What's being wrong by a factor of 10 among friends?

$41 Billion Cost Projected To Remove Illegal Entrants

Deporting the Undocumented: A Cost Assessment

Bush official slammed for stopping illegals sweeps

New Study: Deporting Illegal Aliens Will Cost $41 Billion A Year…Do They Take American Express??


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