Californians' per capita income drop and Latino population growth

Bob Egelko:

Californians' per capita income will drop 11 percent over the first two decades of this century unless the state closes the educational gap of its expanding Latino population, a nonpartisan research center forecast in a report released today.

Latinos are the fastest-growing segment of the state's population and work force, and among the least-educated, said the National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education.

According to 2000 census figures, in the 25-to-64 age group, 52 percent of Latinos lacked a high school diploma, compared with 8 percent of non-Latino whites, and 12 percent of Latinos had a college degree, compared with 46 percent of whites.

If those rates persist as the population continues to change, the report said, the state's average educational level will decline through 2020 and drag down per capita income.

The report projected a California per capita income decrease from $22,728 in 2000 to $20,252 in 2020, adjusted for inflation. By contrast, the center said, Californians' average income rose 30 percent from 1980 to 2000.

Nationally, a 2 percent drop in income was predicted over the same period; California will suffer the biggest loss of any state.

"State policymakers must be aware of the social and economic costs resulting from demographic shifts and disparities in the education of the state's residents," the report said.

The center, based in San Jose, attributed California's situation in part to the diversity of its work force, which was 71 percent white in 1980 and is projected to be 39 percent white in 2020. The report did not address political controversies over educational funding and policy or offer any detailed solutions.

The findings, while grim, do not surprise education advocates or policymakers.

State schools Superintendent Jack O'Connell said in a statement that the study "points out an alarming trend that we must reverse." He said he was addressing the "achievement gap" by supporting full funding for schools, high standards and universal access to preschool.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has battled teachers' groups over funding, but he approved a legal settlement last year designed to reduce classroom overcrowding, improve conditions and make textbooks more available in the state's poorest schools.

California voters waded into the educational issue in 1998 by passing an initiative that largely banned bilingual instruction. Four years earlier, voters approved another measure that would have barred illegal immigrant children from public schools, but it was overturned by a federal judge, who ruled it unconstitutional.

One advocate said any solution of the education gap for Latinos must address the language problem in a state where one-fourth of all students enter school speaking limited or no English.

"We stick kids in classrooms where basically they do not understand what is going on," said Francisco Estrada, director of public policy for the Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund.

He said most of those students had teachers who were untrained in second-language instruction and often lacked the needed teaching materials. Latinos are also more likely to attend overcrowded schools and to have shorter school years than other students, Estrada said.

So Latinos will make California poorer in the long run. I wonder what will happen in the other states that have high Latino population growth?

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