Friday, July 06, 2007

After immigration debate, more people identify themselves as Republicans

Scott Rasmussen:

During the month of June, the number of people identifying themselves as Republicans increased and the number of Democrats was little changed. That’s the first time in 2007 that the number of Republicans has increased. The gap between the parties the smallest it has been since last July.

It’s interesting to note that the number of Republicans increased during the same month that the President’s Job Approval fell to another all-time low.

A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of 15,000 adults in June found that just 32.0% now say they’re Republicans. That’s up more than a full percentage point from a month ago and is within a tenth-of-a-point of the GOP’s best showing in ten months.

The survey also found that the number of people identifying themselves as Democrats fell two-tenths of a point to 36.1% in June. Only once since January 2004 has the number of Democrats in the country been lower (35.9% in December 2005). Democrats gained about two percentage points of support during 2006 and peaked at 38.0% in December of last year. Since actually taking control of Congress, Democrats have given back all of those gains.

The number not affiliated with either major party fell a point to 31.9%. That’s up nearly eight percentage points since Election 2004.

These results are based upon tracking surveys of 15,000 adults per month. The margin of sampling error is less than one percentage point, with a 95% level of confidence. Please keep in mind that figures reported in this article are for all adults, not Likely Voters. Republicans typically do a bit better among Likely Voters.

The Democrats' net advantage over Republicans is now 4.1 percentage points, down a point-and-a-half from a month ago. However, it’s a long way from Election 2004 when the Democrats’ net advantage was just 0.6 percentage points.

A separate survey found that Democrats continue to enjoy a large lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot.

The immigration debate appears to have helped the Republican Party while hurting the President and other supporters of the “comprehensive” reform legislation. Prior to the debate, 47% of voters trusted Democrats more on the immigration issue. Following the failure of the Senate bill, just 39% trust the Democrats more on the issue. In fact, among unaffiliated voters, Republicans are now trusted more than the Democrats on immigration. The only other issue where the GOP can make that claim is national security.

Immigration Battle Converts People In Republicans


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