Nearly four in 10 New Orleans residents who sought help from the Red Cross because of Hurricane Katrina say they don't plan to move back

Susan Page:

That astounding migration of an estimated 50,000 households could change the face of the city they're leaving behind — and the places where they relocate.

USA TODAY, with the cooperation of the American Red Cross, conducted a telephone poll of 1,510 of the 470,000 people from Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama who registered for help after the storm. Half were reached by cellphone in the first comprehensive survey of hurricane victims.

Nearly seven weeks later, the most devastating natural disaster in U.S. history continues to roil their lives.

Among New Orleans residents, 39% say they definitely or probably won't move back. The Red Cross registered more than 132,000 of the city's 180,000 households, which translates to about 50,000 households planning to relocate.

"That would be unprecedented ... in the quickness of it, the bigness of it, and the fact that these people are very rooted" in New Orleans, says William Frey, a demographer at the University of Michigan. "You might be able to have a viable economy there, and tourism. But the pulse of that city would change dramatically."

Overall, blacks are twice as likely as whites to say they won't return. Those with higher and lower incomes are more likely to say they'll relocate than those in the middle. And those under age 30 are much more likely to plan to move than their elders.

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