San Francisco's African-American community has close to double the homicide rate of that in Oakland

Kevin Mullen:

In San Francisco, African Americans comprise less than 10 percent of the population, yet they made up 63 percent of the homicide victims in 2005. In Oakland, where blacks make up 36 percent of the population -- three times greater than San Francisco -- African Americans comprised 77 percent of the homicide victims. Put another way, members of the most at-risk group for homicides -- young black males -- are almost twice as likely to be murdered in San Francisco as in Oakland.

A number of explanations have been advanced to explain high African-American homicide rates generally: environmental factors such as poverty, joblessness and general mistreatment by the larger society. Others add that a subculture of violence has become imbedded in some parts of the African-American community. But neither of those explanations addresses the wide difference between the rates in San Francisco and Oakland.

Part of the reason for the disparity may have to do with simple demographics. Oakland has had a very large African-American middle class dating to the 19th century, when Pullman workers settled at the Oakland end of the transcontinental railroad. There is also a class dimension to homicide incidence: High homicide rates can be found among low-income members of any group. Furthermore, there are indications that San Francisco's African American middle class is declining, leaving a larger proportion of less-advantaged community members behind. According to a recent report from the state-appointed monitor for San Francisco's public schools, Stuart Biegel, many minority families are leaving the city. School enrollment is declining from 800 to 1,000 students a year, many of whom are members of middle-class minority families looking for housing they can afford.

Another answer for the disparity may also lie in different enforcement strategies around the bay. When SFPD Capt. Greg Corrales took command of San Francisco's Mission Police District in 2002, he noticed that 90 percent of drug arrestees in his district gave out-of-town home addresses. By the time he was assigned elsewhere in mid-2004, enforcement efforts by his officers -- principally around his district's BART stations -- brought that percentage down to 5 percent.

Interestingly, 2003 was the peak year for homicide in Oakland for the period from 1999 to the present. During that same time span, San Francisco and Oakland homicide rates went up and down in opposite directions like buckets in a well. Could it be that East Bay enforcement programs are displacing the crime back toward San Francisco? If that's the case, maybe it's time to send it back.

One way to bring down the homicide rate would be for young black males to stop killing each other.

Oakland CA Crime Statistics (2004 Crime Data)

San Francisco CA Crime Statistics (2004 Crime Data)