The death of European civilization?

Investors:

The population of Europe is set to start shrinking soon. And if recent events there are any indication, that's not a good thing. We may be watching the slow-motion death of a civilization.

The events to which we refer have garnered little notice. Yet each, in its own way, is equally telling about the radical changes in store for Europe — and America as well.

On Friday, it was announced in Germany's Hesse state that all schools will soon offer instruction in Islam to Muslim students. Meanwhile, the U.S.-based Weekly Standard reports that a recent confidential government study found a surprising rise in religious expression among Muslims in French public schools.

What's wrong with all this? Maybe nothing. As in the U.S., many nations in Europe have more than one culture and many religions living within their borders. We are all open societies. The problem is what this says about Europe's future.

Europe is changing. The birthrate, now at 1.5 live births per female, is well below the 2.1 required just to replace its population. Birthrates of immigrant Muslim populations there are three times the average. Upshot: By 2020 or so, the European population will fall by more than 4% while the Muslim population will double.

By 2050, just to keep the current worker-to-retiree ratio intact, Europe will have to bring in an estimated 13.5 million immigrants each year. That's 608 million immigrants — the equivalent of 10 Germanys — over 45 years. Anything less will consign the Continent to unavoidable economic decline.

And where will all these newcomers come from? The same places they've come from in the past — Turkey, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Pakistan — all Muslim. Europe's new nursery.

This has ramifications for America as well. We assume that the Europe we'll be dealing with tomorrow will be much the same as Europe today — one that understands and shares our cultural values. The fact is, as Europe slowly becomes more Muslim and less European, it is at risk of dying — not as a place, but as a culture.

Europe's faithless Christianity is already moribund. In London, more people worship in mosques each week than in the Church of England's houses of worship. And in France, there are more practicing Muslims than baptized Catholics.

This means the U.S. will increasingly be isolated in world affairs. For example, will a Europe of, say, 50 million Muslims be more hostile to the U.S.' pro-Israel policy? Seems likely.

Europe's politics may also become more unstable. Al-Qaida cells have already been found in Germany, France, Italy and Spain. Politicians in the Netherlands have been assassinated for "insulting" Islam.

Demographic trends also put the U.S. economy at risk. Two years ago, at a much-hyped conference in Spain titled "Islam in Europe," 2,000 European Muslim leaders called on Muslims around the world to help bring about an end to the capitalist system.

As the biggest player in that system, the U.S. faces a delicate task: how to keep an old but estranged friend from committing suicide.

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