Thursday, April 27, 2006

The Hispanic vote in California

Steve Sailer:

The often-trumpeted Hispanic political ascendancy hasn't quite gone through the formality of taking place yet (for example, Latinos comprised only 6.0 percent of voters nationally in 2004), even in California.

The Achilles' heel of Hispanic electoral clout has always been turnout. According to a 2002 study by demographers Jack Citrin and Benjamin Highton of the Public Policy Institute of California, although non-Hispanic whites made up only 47 percent of California's population in 2000, they will still cast a majority of the votes in California more than a third of a century from now. The PPIC forecasts that in 2040 whites will comprise 53 percent of California's electorate, twice the Hispanic share. (Of course, changes in immigration policy, such as the Senate's decision to put millions of illegal immigrants on the path to citizenship, could change this.)

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