Tuesday, September 05, 2006

Where is the pro-immigrant voter boom?

Michael R. Blood:

Immigration protests that drew hundreds of thousands of flag-waving demonstrators to the nation's streets last spring promised a potent political legacy -- a surge of new Latino voters.

"Today We March, Tomorrow We Vote," they proclaimed.

But an Associated Press review of voter-registration figures from San Jose, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago, Denver, Houston, Atlanta and other major urban areas that had large rallies found no sign of a new voter boom that could sway elections. There was a rise in Los Angeles, where 500,000 protested in March, but it was more of a trickle than a torrent.

Protest organizers -- principally unions, Latino advocacy groups and the Catholic Church -- acknowledge that it has been hard to translate street activism into voting clout, though they insist they can reach their goal of 1 million new voters by 2008.

"I was anticipating a huge jump in registration. I didn't see it," said Jess Cervantes, a veteran California political operative whose company analyzes Latino voting trends. "When you have an emotional response, it takes time to evolve."

It is impossible to count exactly how many new registrants were inspired by the new movement, because counties typically do not ask for race or ethnicity.

New registrations were up this year compared with last year, but they were well below the numbers in 2004, and the increase is not surprising at a time Democrats and Republicans are struggling for control of Congress. Even without that factor, the numbers do not indicate the watershed awakening advocates had envisioned.

The emotional response that erupted in huge rallies across the country last spring was a reaction to federal legislation that would have overhauled current immigration policy, including criminalizing the estimated 11 million immigrants in the United States illegally.

While that legislation is effectively dead this year, immigration remains a campaign issue.

Latino voters are a pivotal voting bloc, especially with their numbers projected to continue to grow. But they have long voted in numbers far below their share of the population, in part because many are under 18 or not U.S. citizens. A study by the Pew Hispanic Center found that while Latinos accounted for half the nation's population growth between the 2000 and 2004 elections, they represented only one-tenth of the increase in votes cast.

The lack of political experience helps explain why the flow of new registrations has been halting.

Some activists acknowledge that their groups have yet to master the nuances of voter-registration drives -- typically a face-to-face task more complex than mobilizing a march. Others complain that political parties with the most to gain haven't financed registration efforts.

"Until the money is spent, 'Today We March, Tomorrow We Vote' will always just be a slogan," said Nativo Lopez, president of the California-based Mexican-American Political Association.

"A million new registrations would cost about $10 million. Is anybody willing to pay that? I haven't seen it," Lopez said.

What is more, no galvanizing leader of the immigrant-rights movement has emerged, and the largest pool of potential voters -- young people -- tends to be the hardest to reach.

Bush Didn't Win 44% of Hispanic Vote —The Smoking Exit Poll


NRO Rebunks Bush’s Hispanic Share Myth

Don’t Worry, Democrats! This Hispanic Hype Is Hogwash

Steve Sailer: Exit Poll Estimates For Hispanic Vote Not Credible

Steve Sailer On Glaring Errors In Hispanic Exit Poll Data


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