Based on the outcomes of the last amnesty in 1986, nearly 10 million illegal aliens may receive amnesty under the Hagel-Martinez bill
Steven A. Camarota:
That is, they will legalize and eventually apply for permanent residence and be eligible for citizenship. As in 1986, we also expect that one-fourth (2.6 million) will get amnesty fraudulently. The bill will also allow an estimated 4.5 million family members of illegal aliens to join their legalized relatives, for a total of 14.4 million beneficiaries. These estimates do not include the very large increases in future legal immigration in the bill.
Based on the 1986 amnesty, we estimate that slightly over 70 percent (7.4 million) of the 10.2 million illegals eligible for the three amnesties in Hagel-Martinez will come forward and receive amnesty legitimately. That is, they will gain legal status allowing them to live and work in the United States and eventually apply for permanent residence and then citizenship.
In addition to the 7.4 million expected to receive amnesty legitimately, we estimate that, as in 1986, there will be one fraudulent amnesty awarded for every three legitimate ones. This means that nearly 2.6 million additional illegals will legalize fraudulently, for a total of 9.9 million.
In addition to the amnesty beneficiaries, the bill will allow an estimated 4.5 million family members currently living aboard to join their newly legalized relatives for a total of 14.4 million people who will benefit from the bill’s amnesty provisions.
Our assumption that the share of illegals who come forward will be similar to the share in 1986 may be too low because, unlike the last legalization, illegals now know that amnesties are real and not a ruse by the government to deport them. Moreover, because the border is now more difficult to cross illegally, legalization is a more attractive option.
Our estimate of 2.6 million fraudulent amnesty recipients, based on the 1986 amnesty, may be too low as well because the false-document industry is now more developed. Moreover, the overworked immigration bureaucracy already has a severe fraud problem according the Government Accountability Office. As its workload mushrooms with amnesty, fraud will become even more difficult to detect.
Of the 14.4 million illegals and their family members who will receive amnesty, we estimate that 13.5 million will eventually become permanent residents, which means they can stay as along as they wish and apply for citizenship. The rest can be expected to die or return home before becoming permanent residents.
The above estimates do not include the bill’s very large increases in future legal immigration, which is expected to double or triple from one million a year under current law.
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posted by Adam Lawson @ 4:26 PM
4 comments
4 Comments:
Thanks for this information, Adam. My Republican Senator supports the Hagel-Martinez bill. He paints a really reasonable picture of it. I am glad to see a well-researched rebuttal.
One thing that bothers me about this bill is that, having studied immigration law, I know for a fact that we have in place, at this very moment, laws to prevent people from being here illegally, and laws that provide for "guest workers" in cases where employers cannot find native workers. S. 2611 "Establishes a temporary guest worker program. . . [and] Provides for U.S. worker protection." As you can see, this is redundant to current immigration law. Our laws are not the problem -- non-enforcement is. We don't need immigration law reform (unless it is to repeal Kennedy's treacherous immigration reform act of the 1960's), we need immigration law enforcement.
* * *
On a related note, in addition to non-enforcement by our government, we have groups in this country that are aiding illegal immigrants in their quest to break our laws. Have you read about a group called Humane Borders? They have been putting water stations in the desert to help illegal immigrants cross. Other people have been destroying the water stations. Humane Borders says that such destruction kills migrants. I say that's hogwash. The immigrants who die because they depended on the water station probably would not have crossed at that point but for the reports of water stations. That makes Humane Borders responsible for any related deaths.
Wow. It just gets more and more interesting. S.2611, TITLE B. SEC. 114. provides for improving the security of Mexico's southern border. Yes, you read that correctly.
Why do we need a new law to deal with illegal aliens. We already have one that requires them to be depoeted (by order of the AG, that is):
8 USC § 1227. Deportable aliens
(a) Classes of deportable aliens
Any alien (including an alien crewman) in and admitted to the United States shall, upon the order of the Attorney General, be removed if the alien is within one or more of the following classes of deportable aliens:
(1) Inadmissible at time of entry or of adjustment of status or violates status
(B) Present in violation of law
Any alien who is present in the United States in violation of this chapter or any other law of the United States, or whose nonimmigrant visa (or other documentation authorizing admission into the United States as a nonimmigrant) has been revoked under section 1201 (i) of this title, is deportable.
Thanks for the information. Unfortunately, there are too many groups like "Humane Borders" whose sole purpose seems to be in helping illegal immigrants break the laws of the United States.
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